Quantitative and qualitative indicators of crime. State of crime: main indicators, signs and dynamics

In criminology, it is customary to distinguish between quantitative and qualitative indicators of crime. Each of them plays its own special role in assessing crime, but only in conjunction with each other can crime indicators give an objective idea of ​​it.

Towards quantitative indicators of crime relate:

− volume (state) of crime;

− intensity (level) of crime;

− dynamics of crime.

Towards qualitative indicators of crime include:

− structure of crime;

− socially dangerous character;

− area where crime spreads.

1.1 Quantitative crime indicators

Quantitative characteristics characterize the state and dynamics of crime.

1.1.1 Volume (state) of crime

The state of crime is measured in the following indicators:

− absolute (the total number of crimes, some call it the crime rate);

− relative (number of acts per 100 thousand population, crime index).

The state of crime is a quantitative sign of crime, in a simplified sense it represents the total number of crimes or the persons who committed them over a certain period of time and in a certain territory. However, when professionally assessing the state of crime, it is necessary to take into account registered and latent crime, structural parameters of crime and the totality of offenders, and other generalizing relative indicators. The statistical difference between a crime and a criminal, characteristic of a professional assessment of the state of crime, is noted by L.M. Akhmetzyanov: “A crime (in statistics) is a unit of statistical accounting that characterizes a phenomenon; criminal - a person who has committed a crime. By their nature, these are different statistical components, and it is wrong to summarize them in one concept.”

The total number of registered crimes and the total number of identified persons who committed them are expressed in absolute terms. For example, in January - December 2011, 2404.8 thousand crimes were registered, or 8.5% less than in the same period in 2010. An increase in registered crimes was noted in 7 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, a decrease in 76 constituent entities.

When assessing the state of crime in absolute terms, in addition to registered crimes, one should also take into account latent (hidden) acts, the number of which can be four to five or more times higher than the level of officially recorded ones. Registered and latent crimes determine the state of real crime. The share of undetected persons who have committed crimes in the structure of the real number of offenders due to unsolved acts is even higher. The total number of actual offenders is five to seven times higher than the number of identified persons involved in committing crimes.

1.1.2 Crime intensity

Crime intensity- this is its characteristic, measured by the number of crimes committed and their participants per a certain population size, for example per 10 or 100 thousand inhabitants. In this way, the overall crime rate and the level of criminal activity of the population are measured. It should be borne in mind that taking into account the entire population cannot be considered completely correct, since in this case the overall crime rate is leveled out by persons under the age of criminal responsibility (14 years), as well as persons aged 60 years and older , which, as is known, do not have any particular criminal activity. It is advisable to exclude these categories of persons from the calculated crime intensity data.

In order to determine the intensity of crime, the corresponding coefficients are calculated for each of the indicated levels using the following formulas:

crime rate (K):

where n is the number of crimes committed (registered) in a certain territory for a certain period;

N is the number of people who have reached the age of criminal responsibility, living in the territory for which the coefficient is calculated (both indicators, n and N, are taken in the same territorial and temporal scope);

10 5 - unified calculation base;

criminal activity coefficient (I):

where m is the number of persons who committed crimes during a certain period in a certain territory;

N is the number of active population (14 - 60 years old) living in the territory for which the coefficient is calculated;

10 5 - unified calculation base.

The crime coefficient calculated for the population is not only a more objective indicator, but also comparable, allowing one to compare crime in different countries, regions, cities and other localities. It acts as an objective measure of crime, allowing one to compare its levels in different territories and in different years. It helps to more impartially assess the dynamics of the crime level calculated for the population. Crime rate and crime rate are sometimes used interchangeably in criminology, although they are not identical.

1.1.3 Crime dynamics

Another important indicator of crime is its dynamics, i.e. change over time. In a broad sense, the state of crime cannot be objectively assessed without its real dynamics, the rate of its growth or decline, the rate of growth (decrease) of individual groups and types of crimes. For example, with the same level of crime in two different regions, the state of crime will be assessed differently if in one there is an intensive increase in serious crimes, and in the other there is a decrease in them. But when considering the state of crime in this way, it turns out to be a collective concept. Only with an integrated approach can one objectively assess the real state of crime in a country, region or locality.

The dynamics of crime are calculated in the absolute number of increases (decrease) in the level of crimes or in relative numbers (percentages, average annual rates of increase or decrease) of these changes, calculated for the base year, in trends and patterns of crime.

D.S. Tokmakov notes: “In criminology there is no consensus on the classification of crime dynamics as quantitative or qualitative indicators. So, T.V. Varchuk classifies dynamics as quantitative characteristics [, p. 38-39]. A.I. Dolgova considers it a qualitative characteristic [, p. 48]. The most preferable opinion seems to be Yu.A. Antonyan, who considers dynamics to be a quantitative and qualitative indicator of crime [, p. 56-57]. This view of the complex nature of this concept is completely justified, since the dynamics of all crime indicators is the most meaningful. Knowing the data on the dynamics of crime, it is possible to assess its development trends, which, together with information about the personality of the criminal and the socio-economic conditions of the commission of crimes, make it possible to identify the main determinants of their commission.”

The dynamics of crime are determined by calculating its characteristics such as absolute growth (decrease), the rate of its growth and increase, produced according to the following formulas:

1) absolute increase (decrease) in crime(A):

where U is an indicator of the volume (level) of crime;

U 1 - previous value of the same indicator;

2) rate of growth (decrease) in crime(T):

3) crime growth rate(T pr):

T pr = T r - 100%.

Crime growth rates are calculated based on the use of basic dynamics indicators, when data from a number of years are compared with a constant basis - the volume of crime in the initial period for analysis. This makes it possible to better ensure the comparability of relative indicators - percentages that show how the crime of subsequent periods compares with the previous one. In this case, the data of the initial year is taken as 100%, and all subsequent years reflect only the percentage of growth. Operating with relative data removes the question of whether the decrease or increase in crime is due to an increase or decrease in the number of residents who have reached the age of criminal responsibility.

The crime growth rate is expressed as a percentage and shows how much the subsequent crime volume has increased or decreased compared to the previous period. When increasing, the percentage reflecting the growth rate is indicated by a “+” sign, and when decreasing, by a “-” sign.

For example, in January - December 2011, 2,404,807 crimes were registered (taken as U), and for the same period in 2010 - 2,628,799 crimes (taken as U 1). Substituting into the formulas, we determine that during the reporting period (2011) compared to 2010, the absolute decrease in crime amounted to 223,992 crimes, the rate of decrease in crime was 91.5%, and the growth rate - -8.5% (i.e. less than for the same period last year).

The dynamics of crime as a social and legal phenomenon are influenced by two groups of factors:

− social, defining the essence of crime, its social danger (causes and conditions of crime, population size, its migration, etc.);

− legal - changes in criminal legislation, detection of crimes, ensuring the inevitability of responsibility, etc.

1.2 Qualitative indicators of crime

Qualitative indicators of crime include its structure, nature, and territorial distribution.

1.2.1 Crime structure

The structure is determined by the ratio (share) in crime of its types, groups of crimes classified on criminal legal or criminological grounds. Such reasons may be:

− social and motivational orientation;

− socio-territorial prevalence;

− social group composition;

− degree and nature of public danger;

− stability of crime;

− degree of organization;

− other characteristics determined taking into account its external and internal characteristics.

The following indicators of the crime structure are distinguished:

− ratio of serious, less serious and minor crimes;

− ratio of intentional and careless crimes;

− the ratio and share of groups of crimes, based on differentiation by chapters of the Special Part of the Criminal Code;

− share of recidivism, organized, professional, group crime;

− proportion of juvenile crime, etc.

To determine the specific gravity of a particular type, genus, type or variety of crime (C), the following formula is used:

where u is an indicator of the volume of a particular type, kind, type or variety of crime in a certain territory for a certain period of time;

U is an indicator of the volume of all crime in the same territory over the same period of time.

1.2.2 Nature of crime

Nature of crime- the share of the most dangerous crimes in its structure. This indicator also reflects the characteristics of persons committing crimes. Thus, the nature of crime determines the degree of its social danger, based on the totality of especially serious and serious crimes in the total volume of crime, as well as the persons who committed them.

The nature of crime is revealed through its structure. At the same time, the structure and nature of crime are not unchanged and depend primarily on the historical, political, socio-economic conditions of society, as well as on changes in criminal legislation, the state of law enforcement practice, etc.

The proportion of serious crime (D) is calculated using the formula:

where u is an indicator of the volume of serious crime;

U is an indicator of the volume of all crime.

For example, the share of grave and especially grave crimes among those registered, calculated using this formula, decreased from 26.0% in January - December 2010 to 25.3% in January - December 2011.

1.2.3 Territorial distribution of crime

Of particular importance is such an indicator of crime as its territorial distribution across different regions of the country (“geography” of crime).

Territorial differences in the volume, intensity, structure, dynamics, and nature of crime are closely related to the level of socio-economic development of individual regions of the country, with national traditions, customs, the level of cultural and educational work, the organization of everyday life and leisure of the population, the quality of law enforcement, and other factors . These differences are taken into account when determining the tasks of society in combating crime, the most important areas of preventive work.

The indicator of territorial distribution of crime (R) is calculated using the formula:

where u is an indicator of the volume of crime in one of the administratively separate territories that are part of the state;

U is an indicator of the volume of crime in the territory, which includes a specific administratively separate territory.

For example, I.R. Akutaeva provides the following data: “... the city of Makhachkala leads not only in the number of registered burglaries, but also in general in the number of annually registered thefts, regardless of the object of encroachment. Thus, in 2009, 1,197 thefts of other people’s property were registered here out of 2,507 cases registered throughout the republic, which is 47.7%.” In this example, the number of registered burglaries in the city of Makhachkala is taken as u, and in the entire Republic of Dagestan - as U.

2. Causes and conditions of violent crime. Features of the prevention of violent crimes

2.1 Causes and conditions of violent crime

2.1.1 Causes of violent crime

It is known that a causal relationship is understood as such an objective connection between phenomena when one of them (the cause), in the presence of certain conditions, gives rise to another (the effect). Based on this general premise, the causes of crime in criminology are usually understood as those negative social phenomena and processes determined by the laws of the functioning of society, which give rise to and reproduce crime and crime as their natural consequence.

The causal complex of crime is understood as interconnected, interdependent negative social phenomena, united by a common nature, as well as the peculiarities of the emergence, condition and development of their most vulnerable zones, within which favorable conditions for committing crimes can most often be created. These primarily include criminogenic phenomena in the spheres of economics, politics, social relations, the moral state of society, and legal regulation.

The general social sources of violence are rooted primarily in the inequality of the position of certain groups and individuals in the stratification structure of society, associated with their place in the system of social production and the distribution of social benefits. It is social inequality that gives rise to extremist forms of behavior, including acts of criminal violence.

The increase in violence is caused by two main factors:

− a sharp deterioration in the social status of certain groups;

− interrupted social mobility.

The decline in status leads to a gap between aspirations and the real possibilities of their implementation, to an increase in mass negative sentiment, which creates the ground for a sharp increase in the number of criminogenic conflicts resolved by force. Blocking upward social mobility also creates the ground for discontent and frustration of a violent nature.

The main criminogenic determinants of violent crimes include:

− socio-legal and moral-psychological foundations of society;

− increased prevalence among certain groups of the population of ideas about the admissibility of violent actions;

− illegal circulation of weapons and relatively easy access to them;

− low level of material well-being of citizens;

− low culture of the population;

− victimized behavior of victims;

− intensive alcoholization and drug addiction of the population;

− shortcomings in the activities of law enforcement agencies, etc.

In conditions of devaluation of the value of human life in society, antisocial orientations dominate among almost all segments of the population in the form of a predisposition of individuals (certain social groups) to choose violence as a means of realizing their interests and satisfying their needs. The determination of various forms of criminal violence is determined precisely by such value orientations and attitudes dominant in society.

The mechanism of influence of factors on crime is very complex and ambiguous. Based on this, we can talk about the influence of one or another of them only with a certain degree of convention, since the positive or negative impact of one or another aspect of social life (phenomenon, process) depends on a specific combination of factors.

There is a well-established opinion in the literature that negative social conditions are the cause of crime, because they (the conditions) give rise to it (the cause). Another position disputes this, believing that external circumstances themselves cannot give rise to crime, and therefore cannot be its causes. They can only form the cause or contribute to the commission of crimes. This opinion seems preferable in relation to the reasons for a particular crime, because it cannot be accomplished without the will of the person himself. This is evidenced by the fact that under the same social conditions, not every person takes the criminal path. This primarily affects those of them who already had certain defects in legal consciousness, due to the shortcomings of earlier upbringing. Therefore, we can reasonably believe that the cause of criminal behavior is formed not simultaneously and not by one group of conditions, but by their whole complex and, as a rule, over a fairly long period of time - most often in childhood. Therefore, in criminology there is the concept of the so-called complete cause of crime, which includes all its mandatory conditions together with causes in the narrow sense.

2.1.2 Conditions of violent crime

In criminology, conditions conducive to the commission of crimes (they are also called circumstances conducive to achieving a criminal result) are understood as those facts of reality that do not directly cause crimes, but their presence may contribute to a person’s intention to commit a crime. These facts of reality relate to specific manifestations of crime and can be rooted in various spheres of social relations and the functioning of the social and state mechanism.

The conditions for crime are various phenomena of social life that do not give rise to crime, but contribute to its emergence and existence.

A cause creates the possibility of a certain effect. Conditions contribute to the realization of this opportunity.

Crime conditions are generally classified into three main groups:

− accompanying (they form the general background of events and phenomena, circumstances of place and time);

− necessary (without such conditions the event might not have occurred);

− sufficient (the set of all necessary conditions).

When all these conditions are present, we can talk about their integral complex.

Studying the process of determining crime involves taking into account relativity, the convention of dividing phenomena and processes into causes and conditions. Many of them act as a cause in some cases, and as a condition of crime in others. At the same time, what is common to all determinants of crime is that they are always based on objective social contradictions.

Such contradictions include, in particular:

− discrepancy between the growth of needs and the capabilities of society to satisfy them;

− violation of social justice in the sphere of distribution and exchange;

− differences in conditions, types and forms of work of various social and professional groups of the population;

− differences in cultural and living conditions in different regions of the country;

− property and other differences;

− political disagreements and social instability of society;

− shortcomings of ideological, cultural and educational work;

− shortcomings in the economic mechanism, trade and services to the population;

− low efficiency of crime prevention.

These and other contradictions serve as a source of aggravation of the crime situation, and it is they who give the primary impetus to the development and existence of crime. Specifically, this is expressed in the fact that, on the one hand, they adversely affect the moral and legal formation of the individual, the socio-psychological mood of certain segments of the population, as a result of which, in some individuals, antisocial views and motives underlying various crimes are strengthened and aggravated. on the other hand, they contribute to the creation of a criminogenic situation that facilitates the commission of crimes.

LIST OF SOURCES AND REFERENCES USED

1. Criminology: Textbook for universities / Ed. ed. Doctor of Law, Prof. A.I. Dolgovoy. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Norma, 2005. - 912 p.
2. Criminology: textbook / ed. V.N. Kudryavtsev and V.E. Eminov. — 4th ed., revised. and additional - M.: Norma, 2009. - 800 p.
3. Akutaeva I.R. State, structure and dynamics of theft of other people's property // Legality. 2012. No. 3. pp. 49 - 52. [Electronic resource] / SPS “Consultant Plus”. - Last. updated 11/27/2012.
4. Akhmetzyanov L.M. Application of statistical information in scientific publications // Information law. 2011. No. 3. pp. 3-7. [Electronic resource] / SPS “Consultant Plus”. - Last. updated 11/27/2012.
5. Zurushev A.K. On social conditions and causes of criminal violence // Russian investigator. 2008. No. 15. [Electronic resource] / SPS “Consultant Plus”. - Last. updated 11/27/2012.
6. Skifsky I.S. Social factors of violent crime in Russia // Russian Legal Journal. 2011. No. 6. pp. 102-109. [Electronic resource] / SPS “Consultant Plus”. - Last. updated 11/27/2012;
7. Tokmakov D.S. Analysis of statistics of violent crime among minors in Russia // Society and Law. 2009. No. 5. pp. 225-227. [Electronic resource] / SPS “Consultant Plus”. - Last. updated 11/27/2012.
8. State of crime January - December 2010 / URL: http://www.mvd.ru/presscenter/statistics/reports/show_88233/ (date accessed 01/03/2012).
9. State of crime January - December 2011 / URL: http://www.mvd.ru/presscenter/statistics/reports/show_102505/ (date accessed 01/03/2012).

   Zurushev A.K. On social conditions and causes of criminal violence // Russian investigator. 2008. No. 15. [Electronic resource] / SPS “Consultant Plus”. - Last. updated 11/27/2012.

   Criminology: Textbook for universities / Ed. ed. D. Yu. Sc., prof. A.I. Debt. — 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Norma, 2005. - 912 p. P.481-482.

Crime as a systemic, relatively massive and stable phenomenon can be measured using various statistical indicators. Although crime statistics in Europe were introduced in the 19th century, each country uses its own indicators to measure crime. The Unified German Criminal-Judicial Statistical Service, which appeared in 1882, uses the term “scale of crime” to quantify crime. In the United States, since 1929, the FBI has regularly published “Crime Summary Reports”, providing data on seven index crimes: murder, rape, aggravated assault, burglary (forcible entry into another's home at night with the intent to rob), burglary, theft property worth more than $50, and car theft. When determining the quantitative characteristics of crime, Polish lawyers use such a concept as the magnitude of crime, which is understood as the proportion of criminal acts in the total activities of members of society. This proportion varies depending on what crime is being analyzed. Polish scientists use the following definitions:

• ? actual crime is a set of criminal acts committed at a certain moment in a certain place. This characteristic is never expressed in concrete terms, i.e. it is conditional due to the latency problem;
• ? identified crime - a set of criminal acts, information about which was received by the criminal prosecution authorities, which began a preliminary investigation in connection with this (it is sometimes called alleged);
• ? established crime - a set of acts, the criminal nature of which is established by a preliminary investigation

In Russia, the state of crime is judged by its level and structure (its quantitative and qualitative sides, respectively). In addition to the level, the quantitative characteristics of crime are associated with the coefficient (index) and the dynamics of crime.

Crime level - the total number of crimes committed and the number of persons who committed them over a certain period in a given region. The crime rate indicator formulated in this way does not, however, give a complete picture of its prevalence in a particular area, in a particular region. The reason for this is its one-sidedness: given the geographical and time frame, it ignores the number of inhabitants of a given region.

To avoid inaccuracies in crime analysis, crime indices (coefficients) are used. Crime rate (index)- this is a relative indicator, expressed in the number of crimes (or criminals) per certain conventional unit. Coefficients can be calculated by registered crimes, by the number of persons who committed them, by the number of criminal cases examined, by criminal records, and by crime victims. We emphasize that the crime coefficient is the most objective indicator of the state of crime, since it does not simply take into account absolute numbers, but introduces an adjustment for the size of the population. The coefficient is determined in order to compare the state of crime in regions (at sites) with different numbers of people. Without this indicator, it is impossible to compare the state of crime between countries, regions, localities, economic sectors, organizations, enterprises and institutions. It is also used to determine the crime level at different periods in the same area or region, taking into account changes in population.

There are three types of coefficients:

• ? intensity factor;
• ? activity coefficient;
• ? special coefficients.

When calculating the crime intensity coefficient (index), the calculation is based on the number of crimes committed per 100 thousand, 10 thousand or 1 thousand people of the population of the country as a whole or a specific region. The intensity index is calculated using the formula:

N is the number of people living in a given territory without taking into account its age.

Activity factor is determined only in relation to persons who have reached the age of criminal responsibility (14 years), and is calculated based on the number of crimes committed per 100 thousand, 10 thousand or 1 thousand people who have reached the age of criminal responsibility, for the country as a whole or for a specific region. This type of coefficient more adequately reflects the state of crime. The intensity index is calculated using the formula:

where P is the number of crimes committed (registered) in a certain territory for a certain period;

N - the number of people living in a given territory and who have reached the age of criminal responsibility, with the exception of children under 14 years of age.

In practice, different relationships between activity and crime intensity are possible. As a rule, the dynamics of intensity correspond to the dynamics of activity. But discrepancies are also possible, for example, when the intensity decreases and criminal activity increases, which can be explained by a decrease in the birth rate and increased migration of the population who have reached the age of criminal responsibility.

Special odds can be calculated in relation to certain types of crime, to certain categories of convicts. For example, you need to calculate the juvenile crime rate per 100 thousand persons under 18 years of age. To do this, the number of crimes committed by minors, or the number of juvenile offenders, is divided by the population aged 14 to 18 years. Sometimes other indicators can be used as a single calculation base, for example, a certain amount of vehicle mileage when establishing the frequency of road accidents.

Crime dynamics - another quantitative indicator reflecting changes in its condition and structure during a particular time period. The dynamics show the movement of crime by year, quarter, and decade, which is important for planning the fight against crime. Dynamics are analyzed for current research (one, two, three years are compared) or for scientific forecasting (dynamics are compared over a longer period of time) based on absolute indicators, percentages, coefficients, weighted averages, using various statistical techniques. There are chain and basic methods of analyzing dynamics.

With the chain method, the increase in crime is determined, each year is compared with the previous one: 2017 with 2016, and 2016 with 2015. This technique is used by law enforcement agencies in everyday activities when summing up results for a year, half a year or quarter. The crime growth rate is expressed as a percentage and shows how much the subsequent crime volume has increased or decreased compared to the previous period. When increasing, the percentage reflecting the growth rate is indicated by the sign

In Russia, the number of registered crimes in 2016 compared to 2015 decreased by 100 percentage points and amounted to 2160.0 thousand crimes.

The basic method of analyzing dynamics means that a certain year is taken as a starting point, and all subsequent years are compared with it. This makes it possible to better ensure the comparability of relative indicators - percentages that show how the crime of subsequent periods compares with the previous one. In this case, the data of the initial year is taken as 100%, and all subsequent years reflect only the percentage of growth. For example, the number (rates, percentages) of crimes committed in the next ten years is compared with the base year 1990. The use of this method is important for identifying crime trends over a more or less long period.

Thus, analyzing the dynamics of crime in the Russian Federation over the past decades, we see that the peak of crime occurred in 2006, after which there was a slight decline in the number of registered crimes.

Based on the dynamics, if it is compared with synchronous social processes, the researcher has the opportunity to judge not only quantitative changes in crime itself, but also about changes in its causes (economic, political, social, demographic). This indicator is also used in criminological forecasting.

The qualitative, most meaningful statistical indicator is the structure of crime. Using this indicator, the anatomy of crime is revealed, which helps to identify criminogenic factors. Crime structure- this is the proportion and ratio of various types of crimes in their total number for a certain period of time in a certain territory. The structure of crime (Sp) is expressed as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:

where Cn is the structure of crime;

Vp (numerator) - an indicator of the volume of a certain type of crime;

PP is an indicator of a certain volume of all crime in a certain territory for a specific time period, which is taken as 100%.

The definition of the main directions of combating it depends on the structure of crime. Structuring criteria are selected depending on the objectives of the study. They may be the degree of public danger of criminal acts, their focus on certain types of social relations, age, gender, social status of the criminals.

The structure of crime can reflect its geography, highlight juvenile crimes and the most common illegal acts. In other words, this indicator makes it possible to judge not only the quantitative, but also the qualitative side of crime, in particular the degree of public danger.

There can be an infinite number of structuring criteria. Their choice depends on the tasks set and the goals of the analysis. Statistical cards reflect various structural elements of crime. However, only a small number of this set are presented in statistical reporting. Thus, the annual publications of the Information Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia on the state of crime in Russia reflect information on serious and especially serious crimes (in one group):

• ? by types and groups of main crimes;
• ? economic crimes;
• ? state of crime and detection of crimes in transport;
• ? crimes related to drug trafficking;
• ? crimes committed in public places, on roads and in populated areas;
• ? crimes related to illegal weapons trafficking;
• ? characteristics of persons who committed crimes;
• ? socio-criminological characteristics of crime;
• ? crimes committed by foreign citizens, stateless persons;
• ? state, dynamics of crime, detection of crimes in the regions of Russia;
• ? the state, dynamics and detection of serious and especially serious crimes in the regions of Russia.

The nature of crime is determined by the number of the most dangerous crimes in the crime structure, as well as by the characteristics of the persons who committed the crimes. Both the nature and structure of crime are changeable and depend on the historical, political, socio-economic conditions of society, as well as on changes in criminal legislation and the state of law enforcement.

Brief description of the state of crime in the Russian Federation for 2016. During the year, 2160.0 thousand crimes were registered, or 10% less than in the same period last year. A decrease in registered crimes was noted in 74 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The share of grave and especially grave crimes in 2016 decreased to 21%. Almost half of all registered crimes (44%) are theft of other people's property, committed by: theft, robbery and robbery; 50% of crimes were committed by persons who had previously committed crimes, 33% by persons who were intoxicated.

• State of crime in Russia for January - December 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation. Federal Public Institution "Main Information and Analytical Center".

Required Formulas:

Crime rate calculated by the formula: ,

where KP is the crime rate, P is the absolute number of recorded crimes,

N – absolute population size.

Criminal incidence rate:
,

where L – persons who have committed crimes (from 14 years of age); N – population minus persons under 14 years of age.

Intensity factor:
, where P is the absolute number of offenses, E is a unit of population, N is its number

Crime severity index (or type index):
,

where Itp is the crime severity index; Σ Pt – the amount of crimes of the current period;

Σ Pb – the amount of crimes of the base period; W – crime severity scores (the same for both the current and base periods).

Totalortotal index:

Jm=Σ (crimes multiplied by their conditional assessment) one year

Σ (crimes multiplied by their conditional assessment) of another year

Crime structure indicator:
, in this case Σ Вп = 100%.

where SP is the structure of crime, Vp is the type of crime; P – number of crimes.

Rates of growth– changes in crime over time, taking into account 100%.

, where P 1 is the youngest year, P 2 is the senior year in digit.

Rate of increase:
(can be a “–” number).

Simple arithmetic mean = dividing the sum of all quantities by their number.

Arithmetic average weighted used when the quantitative values ​​of a characteristic are repeated.
, where Xi is the value of the averaged attribute of a unit;

fi – repeatability of individual attribute values ​​(frequency).

Arithmetic average weighted from group averages(average of average options):
.

Its calculation is carried out based on individual average parts of the population.
Geometric mean:

, where X is the growth rate for the corresponding period. Harmonic mean

applies if the set is presented as a product of options and frequency (xf) and does not contain frequencies for individual options. . , whereWi=Xi

fi.:

where X is the average value; Хi – values ​​of the characteristic (variant); n – number of variant; z – index of the degree of average. Moreover, if z = 1, then this is the arithmetic mean; ifz= 0, then the geometric mean; ifz= –1, then the harmonic mean.

Median: 1) if the variation series has an even number of terms, then the median = half the sum of 2 average options; 2) if odd – a number indicating the object located in the middle.

Fashion– the most frequently encountered quantity. In an interval series, this is the central version of the interval that has the highest frequency.

Mo – interval series mode; Hmo – lower limit of the interval; imo – interval value; fmo – frequency corresponding to the interval; fmo- 1 – frequency preceding the interval; fmo +1 – frequency of the interval following the modal one.

Standard deviation:

Explanation of the formula:

where σ is the standard deviation, X is the value of the series variant, – arithmetic mean of the series, ∑ – sum, n – number of options.

The coefficient of variation:
, where Kv is the coefficient of variation, σ is the standard deviation, – arithmetic mean of the series.

In criminology, it is customary to distinguish between quantitative and qualitative indicators of crime. Each of them plays its own special role in assessing crime, but taken separately, cannot give an objective idea of ​​it. Only in interrelation with each other can crime indicators fulfill their criminological purpose from the point of view of deepening knowledge of its essential aspects.

Analysis of crime usually begins with an assessment of such an indicator as volume (state), which is determined by the total number of crimes committed, as well as the number of persons who committed them, in a certain territory for a specific period of time. It should be borne in mind that the number of crimes is not always the same as the number of persons who committed them, since one crime can be committed by a group of persons, and one person often commits several crimes.

Assessing the prevalence of crime involves not only finding out the absolute number of crimes and criminals, but also comparing available data with population indicators. This is achieved by determining the intensity of crime.

Crime intensity is its characteristic, measured by the number of crimes committed and their participants per certain population size, for example per 10 or per 100 thousand inhabitants. Thus, the overall crime rate and the level of criminal activity of the population are measured. In order to determine the intensity of crime, the corresponding coefficients are calculated for each of the indicated levels using the following formulas:

Crime Coefficient (K):

where n is the number of crimes committed (registered) in a certain territory for a certain period;

N – the number of people who have reached the age of criminal responsibility, living in the territory for which the coefficient is calculated;

10 – unified calculation base.

Criminal activity coefficient (I):

where m is the number of persons who committed crimes during a certain period in a certain territory;

N – the number of active population (14-60 years old) living in the territory for which the index is calculated;

10 – unified calculation base.

It should be borne in mind that taking into account the entire population cannot be considered completely correct, since in this case the overall crime rate is leveled out by persons under the age of criminal responsibility (14 years), as well as persons aged 60 years and older, who, as is known, do not have much criminal activity. It is advisable to exclude these categories of persons from the calculated crime intensity data.

Another important indicator of crime is its dynamics, i.e., changes over time. The dynamics of crime are determined by calculating its characteristics such as absolute growth (decrease), the rate of its growth and increase, produced according to the following formulas:

Absolute increase (decrease) in crime (A):

where U is an indicator of the volume (level) of crime;

U1 – previous value of the same indicator.

Crime growth (decrease) rate (Tr):

Crime growth rate (Tpr):

Crime growth rates are calculated based on the use of basic dynamics indicators, when data from a number of years are compared with a constant basis - the crime rate in the initial period for analysis. This makes it possible to better ensure the comparability of relative indicators - %, which show how the crime of subsequent periods compares with the previous one. In this case, the data of the initial year is taken as 100%, and all subsequent years reflect only the percentage of growth. Operating with relative data removes the question of whether the decrease or increase in crime is due to an increase or decrease in the number of residents who have reached the age of criminal responsibility.

The crime growth rate is expressed as a percentage and shows how much the subsequent crime rate has increased or decreased compared to the previous period. When increasing, the percentage reflecting the growth rate is indicated by a “+” sign; when decreasing, by a “–” sign.

The dynamics of crime as a social and legal phenomenon are influenced by two groups of factors:

· social, defining the essence of crime, its social danger (causes and conditions of crime, population level, migration, etc.);

· legal – changes in criminal legislation, detection of crimes, ensuring the inevitability of responsibility, etc.

Crime indicators also include its structure, nature, and territorial distribution.

The structure is determined by the ratio (share) in crime of its types, groups of crimes classified on criminal legal or criminological grounds.

Such reasons may be: social and motivational orientation; socio-territorial prevalence; social group composition; the degree and nature of public danger; crime persistence; the degree of organization and other characteristics determined taking into account its external and internal characteristics.

When analyzing the structure of crime, it is necessary to determine in percentage terms the ratio of crimes of especially serious, serious, moderate and minor gravity; intentional and careless, as well as the proportion of repeat, professional, group crime; share of juvenile crime, etc.

In criminological terms, the nature of the motivation of the criminal’s personality is of great importance. Typically, violent, mercenary and mercenary-violent crimes are distinguished. Comparison of the motivational characteristics of crime in different periods and in different administrative-territorial units allows, for example, to understand what kind of distortions of moral and legal consciousness, needs and interests underlie the most common types of crime, and in accordance with this, most accurately determine the main guidelines of preventive work.

The analysis of the structure of crime will be deeper, the more precisely its foundations are chosen. Thus, if all juvenile crime is taken as 100%, and then its share is determined taking into account its territorial prevalence, then it is possible to identify specific regions that are most affected by this type of crime. By doing the same thing, but taking juvenile crime in a certain territory as 100%, you can find out which age and social groups have the greatest criminogenicity and commit the predominant number of crimes.

To determine the specific gravity of a particular type, genus, type or variety of crime (C), the following formula is used:

where u is an indicator of the volume of a particular type, kind, type or variety of crime;

U is an indicator of the volume of all crime in the same territory over the same period of time.

The nature of crime is the share of the most dangerous crimes in its structure. This indicator also reflects the characteristics of persons committing crimes. Thus, the nature of crime determines the degree of its social danger, based on the totality of especially serious and serious crimes in the total volume of crime, as well as the persons who committed them. The proportion of serious crime (D) is calculated using the formula:

where u is an indicator of the volume of serious crime;

U is an indicator of the volume of total crime.

Of particular importance is such an indicator of crime as its territorial distribution across different regions of the country (“geography” of crime).

Territorial differences in the volume, intensity, structure, dynamics, and nature of crime are closely related to the level of socio-economic development of individual regions of the country, with national traditions, customs, the level of cultural and educational work, the organization of everyday life and leisure of the population, the quality of law enforcement, and other factors . These differences are taken into account when determining the tasks of society in combating crime, the most important areas of preventive work.

The indicator of territorial distribution of crime (R) is calculated using the formula:

where u is an indicator of the volume of crime in one of the administratively separate territories that are part of the state;

U is an indicator of the volume of crime in the territory, which includes a specific administratively separate territory.

The peculiar “price” of crime is reflected in its additional qualitative and quantitative indicator, such as social consequences. These include the real harm caused by crime to social relations, expressed in the totality of negative consequences for social values ​​as a result of committing crimes, as well as in the economic and other costs of society associated with the fight against crime.

The consequences of crime can manifest themselves in a variety of spheres of society: socio-economic, political, spiritual, moral, labor, family, etc. Naturally, not all damage caused by crime can be calculated or expressed in monetary terms. But all the consequences of crime cause harm to society and negatively affect social relations. The social consequences of crime can be direct, directly related to crimes, and indirect, the connection of which with crimes is mediated through the costs of fighting crime or causing moral damage to victims.

Property (material) damage is calculated in monetary terms; damage from violent attacks - the number of deaths, disabilities; the number of working days lost due to the loss of ability to work of the victims; the amount of expenses for treatment and payment of money for certificates of incapacity for work, etc.

A comprehensive and in-depth study of crime cannot be carried out without taking into account its consequences. This is especially important when developing measures to prevent crimes, limit them, and minimize harm from their commission.

Crime rate- a specific generalizing indicator of the total number of recorded crimes, correlated with the population size. It stands for the number of crimes per 100 thousand, 10 thousand or 1 thousand population and is an objective measure of crime, allowing one to compare its levels in different countries and in different years.
In 1991, in Sweden, for example, 1,045,306 crimes were recorded, and in the USSR - 3,223,147, i.e. 3 times more. But the population in Sweden at that time was 35 times less than in the USSR. Having calculated the crime rate, we find that in Sweden it was 12,154 crimes per 100 thousand inhabitants, and in the USSR - 1,115, or 11 times less. The data obtained do not mean that law and order in the USSR that year was 11 times higher than in Sweden. Comprehensive qualitative comparisons of the level of criminalization of acts, the completeness of their registration, the effectiveness of police work, etc. are needed. As a result, we may come to a different opinion, but without objective quantitative comparisons, i.e. It's hard to do that without a crime rate. It helps to more impartially assess the dynamics of the crime level calculated for the population. In absolute terms, for example, crime in the USSR increased 5.6 times from 1956 to 1991, but in terms of the crime coefficient (CR) - only 3.8, since it took into account the country's population growth.
The coefficient is calculated using the formula:
,
Where P - absolute number of recorded crimes; N - absolute size of the total population. Both indicators are taken in the same territorial and temporal scope. The number of crimes is usually calculated per 100 thousand population. But with small numbers of crimes and population (in a city, region, enterprise) KP can be calculated per 10 thousand or per 1 thousand inhabitants. However, in any case, these numbers mean the dimension of the coefficient under consideration, which must be indicated: the number of crimes per 100 thousand or 10 thousand population.
When calculating and assessing the crime rate for criminological purposes, it is necessary to know some statistical, demographic and other features.

1. Crimes taken for a particular year represent And Interval series characterizing the dynamics of actions that are summarized throughout the year. Inaccuracies in this indicator can only be associated with incompleteness and dishonesty in the registration of crimes.
2. The population represents moment a series characterizing it only for a certain date. At the beginning of the year the population is one, in the middle - another, and at the end - a third. The coefficient calculated for the population at the beginning of the year will, as a rule, be overestimated. It will be more adequate if it is calculated by the population at the end of the year or by the average annual population, which is taken as half the sum of the population at the beginning and end of the year.
3. Demographers differentiate between populations. permanent and cash . This is of particular importance for regions with high levels of transient populations. The permanent population of Moscow at the beginning of 1996 was 8.6 million people, the number of “illegals” (persons living without residence permit or registration) was about 1 million and visitors - up to 1.5 million. When calculating the crime rate, this cannot be ignored take into account, especially since between a third and half of crimes in Moscow are committed by temporary residents.
4. Criminal liability in our country begins at the age of 14 (for a limited range of acts) and at the age of 16 for all crimes. The share of all minors under 14 years of age on average in the world is about 35% of the total population. In a country with a high birth rate, the proportion of these adolescents is above 40%, and in a country with a low birth rate it is about or less than 20%. When comparing regions (countries) of different birth rates, it is advisable to calculate the crime rate per population at the age of criminal responsibility , for example from 14 years and older. Otherwise, in a region with a high birth rate, the number of crimes per 100 thousand of the total population will actually be underestimated, since children under 14 years of age are not subjects of crimes and are not brought to criminal responsibility. This recommendation is difficult to implement when comparing countries where criminal liability begins at different ages (10, 12, 14, 16 years). Therefore, in international comparisons, the coefficient in question is usually calculated for the entire population.
5. Instead of the total number of recorded crimes, when calculating the coefficient, the total number of solved crimes, identified offenders, pre-arrested persons, all convicted persons, those sentenced only to imprisonment, prisoners, etc. can be taken. In this case, we will deal with the number of solved crimes per 100 thousand inhabitants, with the number of identified offenders for the same population, etc. When calculating the coefficient of prisoners, one must keep in mind that their number in places of deprivation of liberty also represents a moment series: at the beginning of the year it can be one, and at the end of the year it can be another. When calculating the coefficient, the number of prisoners in prison as of December 31 of the analyzed year or the arithmetic average of the data at the beginning and end of the year is usually taken. The incarceration rate can also be calculated per 100 thousand registered crimes or identified offenders. In this case, it shows the intensity of the repressiveness of the judicial system.
6. The crime rate can be calculated for minors, women, men, those with previous convictions, the unemployed, students, military personnel and other groups of the population using the same formula. Only in this case the symbol "P" will mean the number of crimes committed by the group of citizens being studied, and the symbol "N" - the total number of citizens of this category in the country, region, city.
7. To objectively assess the level of individual groups and types of crimes, the coefficient of violent, mercenary, economic acts or intentional murders, rapes, thefts, etc. is calculated. For example, in 1994, the number of intentional murders per 100 thousand of the total population of Estonia was 24, in Russia - 21.8, in Lithuania - 14.7, in the USA - 9, in Bulgaria - 5.9, in Austria - 2.5, in Japan - 1.
The combination of various coefficients helps to more objectively assess the levels of crime and its types and compare them in time (by year) and in space (by territory).